The Study on Stock Price Fluctuations and Forecasting Methods

【摘要 (中文/英文)】 有效市场理论对证券市场价格运动特征分析有着很大的影响,但是随着研究的不断深入,它不断遭受到来自理论和实证两方面的质疑。我们可以发现股票市场价格波动的确存在规律性,可以通过技术分析来预测股票价格的未来波动趋势。 本文从理论和实证上证明股票市场价格波动存在可预测性,即价格波动存在趋势性、周期循环和价格循环。利用时间窗和价格域的相互验证原则,我们可以捕捉未来的投资机会和警示风险。同时本文在总结这一现象的基础上提出了周期循环与价格循环共振的原理:当价格循环遭遇周期性循环时产生转折的概率很高,也即时间窗遭遇价格域时市场波动产生转折的概率较大。并且根据这一原理,同时借鉴江恩理论,创建了“时空共振模型”这一全新的股票价格趋势分析方法,通过实证分析发现该模型在实际的价格趋势分析中有很高的准确率,对投资行为有切实的指导作用。

 Efficient Market Theory has great impact on the characteristics of the stock market price movements, but with the constant deepening of research, it continuously suffered from both theoretical and empirical question. We can find that there are laws in the stock market price fluctuations, and we can predict the future stock price trends by the technical analysis. This paper shows the theoretical and empirical proof on the predictability of price fluctuations in the stock market, there is the trend of price fluctuations, cycle and price cycle. We can capture the future investment opportunities and risk alerts by using the time window and the price of domain, At the same time, this paper summed up this phenomenon on the basis of the price cycle and the cycle of the principle of resonance: There is a high probability turning point in the cycle When the price cycle experienced a cyclical, and there is a large probability of a turning point when the time window experienced price fluctuations in the market. According to this principle and jiangen theory, the paper created the "time and space resonance model". It is a new way of stock price trends analysis, We can find that the model has a high accuracy rate in the actual price trend analysis through empirical analysis, and there is a practical guide on the investment behavior.

【关键词 (中文/英文)】 趋势预测; 周期循环; 价格循环; 时空共振

Trend forecasting; Cycle; Price cycle; Technical analysis