Market Value Management Strategies of China's Listed Banks

【摘要 (中文/英文)】 公司的市场价值(Market Value )是指股权市场价值(Market Capitalization)与债务市场价值(Market Value of Debt)之和。狭义的公司市场价值单指股权市场价值。本文所讨论的正是改善我国上市银行股权市场价值管理的问题。 国外研究结果显示,影响市值的根本因素是公司内在价值。而能够影响公司内在价值的主要因素包括:资本结构、公司治理、研发投资、公司经营策略和市场结构。 由于影响公司市值的根本因素是公司的内在价值,因此如何通过提高公司可计量的财务数据来提高公司内在价值就成为了重要的问题。因此,本文进一步围绕公司财务数据与公司市值这一角度展开讨论。 在进行公司财务数据与公司市值关系研究的过程中,本文选取了应用Feltham_Ohlson股权估值模型进行实证分析的方法。但是由于传统的Feltham_Ohlson模型没有考虑股权价值的成长性、资本结构对股权价值的影响,不能满足研究需要。因此,根据党建忠(2004)的研究成果,本文将Feltham-Ohlson股权估值模型进行了修正,加入了公司盈利能力成长性、核心资产盈利能力、资本结构、公司规模和流通盘规模这...更多几个因素,建立起了本文分析所应用的Feltham-Ohlson股权估值修正模型。 实证分析第一阶段。选取了民生银行、招商银行、浦发银行进行典型分析。在时间上,首先统一选取了2003年6月30日——2006年12月31日这一共同的时间,运用SPSS统计软件先后在Enter策略和Stepwise策略下进行回归和比较分析。回归结果显示,“净利润同比增长率”和“每股净资产”与“股票价格”显著正相关。 实证分析第二阶段。考虑到第一阶段的时间段中包含了股权分置改革前后两个时间段,会对整了结果产生强烈影响。因此,在第二阶段分析中,选取3家银行2005年9月30日——2006年12月31日这一时间段,运用SPSS统计软件在Stepwise策略下进行回归和比较分析。回归结果显示,“净利润同比增长率”、“每股净资产”和“流通股比例”与“股票价格”显著正相关。 结合两个阶段的实证分析,本文得出结论:目前对我国上市银行市值有正面影响程度的财务指标主要包括三个,即“净利润同比增长率”、“每股净资产”和“流通股比例”。这三个指标也可进一步引申为银行经营时需要注意的三个方面,即“银行的赢利能力和成长性”、“银行的资本实力”和“良好的公司治理结构”。因此,上市银行对银行市值进行管理时,应该主要从这三个大方向入手进行管理,提高银行的内在价值。具体的执行过程中应该注意到以下几点: 1.增强赢利能力提高银行市值 增强赢利能力,主要应该进行金融创新,以提高银行预期成长性。这其中包括:(1)混业经营趋势下的制度创新;(2)连接资本市场的产品创新;(3)应用新技术的服务创新。 2.增加资本实力提高银行市值 银行是风险经营的企业,在当今金融活动丰富、金融风险多样化的情况下,上市银行需增强自身资本实力,提高资本充足率,从而增强经营的安全性和稳健性。这其中包括:(1)积极实施巴塞尔新资本协议;(2)建立以资本充足率为核心的资产管理体制;(3)维持良好资本结构 3.完善治理结构提高银行市值 公司治理结构是公司价值的核心,具有规范治理机构的公司会获得更高的投资溢价。这其中包括:(1)合理引进机构投资者和境外战略投资者;(2)建立市值考核机制和股权激励机制;(3)重视投资者关系和投资者关系管理 

 The Market Value of the company is the sum of the market value of equity (Market Capitalization) and the market value of debt. Narrowly speaking, the company's Market Value is just referring to the equity market value. The mission of this paper is to discuss how to improve the Market Value of listed banks of China. Foreign studies show that the fundamental factor affecting the company’s Market Value is the Intrinsic Value of the company. And the main factors could affect the company's intrinsic value include: Capital Structure, Corporate Governance, R & D Investment, the company’s Business Strategy and Market Structure. Since the Intrinsic Value of the company is a fundamental element of the Market Value of the company, so how the company by improving its measurement of financial data to enhance the intrinsic value of the company is to become an important issue. Therefore, this paper spreads its further discussion on the angles of the company's financial data and the Market Value. In the process of analysing the relationship between company's financial data and the Market Value, we have selected Feltham_Ohlson Equity Valuation Model as a empirical analysis method. However, because the traditional Feltham_Ohlson model does not consider the growth of the equity value, the impact of capital structure on the equty, so it can not meet our research needs. Therefore, in accordance with Dang Jianzhong’s (2004) research results, this paper will amend Feltham-Ohlson Equity Valuation Model. By adding the company's growth of profitability, profitability of core assets, capital structure, company size and the scale of floating equty into this model, this paper has established Feltham-Ohlson Equity Valuation Correction Model to complete the discusstion. In the first phase of the empirical analysis. We choose the China Minsheng Bank, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank as the typical analysis. We select 06/30/ 2003– 12/31/2006 as the unified time, and we use SPSS statistical software to take regression analysis and comparison successively under Enter strategy and Stepwise strategy. Regression results show that "net profit year-on-year growth" and "net assets per share" keep a significantly positive correlation with "stock price". In the second phase of the empirical analysis. Taking into account the time of the first phase includes two phases: time before share reform and time after it, this will have a strong impact on the whole results. Therefore, in the second phase of the analysis, we choose the data of the three banks between 09/30/2005– 12/ 31/2006. This time we use SPSS statistical software in Stepwise strategy for a regression analysis and comparison. Regression results show that "net profit year-on-year growth rate", "net assets per share" and "percentage of shares in circulation" have a significantly positive correlation with "stock price". Combining two stages of the empirical analysis, the paper concluds: there are three major financial indicators have a positive impact on the current Market Value of Chinese listed banks. They are "net profit year-on-year growth rate", "net assets per share" and " proportion of circulating equty ". These three indicators can be further extended for three areas which a bank's business should take attention for, they are "bank profitability and growth", " capital strength of bank " and "good corporate governance structure." Therefore, in the the management of Market Value of listed banks, we should start with the general direction from the three major directiont, to enhance the intrinsic value of the banks. In the concrete implementation we should be noted the following points: 1. Enhance the profitability of banks to improve Market Value To enhance the profitability of banks, is to mainly make financial innovation, so this will enhance the expected growth of the bank. These include: (1) system innovation in the mixed business trends; (2) products innovation connecting with the capital market; (3) the application of new technology for service innovation. 2. Raise capital strength to increase the Market Value Banks are enterprises running the risk, in today's financial activities there are plentiful diversification of financial risks, so the listed banks should strengthen their capital strength, raise their capital adequacy ratio, to enhanc the safety and operational stability. These include: (1) implement the new Basel Capital Accord actively; (2) establish an assets management system aimed at the core of the capital adequacy ratio; (3) to maintain a good capital structure. 3. Improve the governance structure to enhance the Market Value of banks Corporate governance structure is the core value of the company, and a standardizing corporate governance structure will bring a higher investment premium. These include: (1) reasonable institutional investors and the introduction of foreign strategic investors; (2) the establishment of Market Value assessment mechanism and equity incentive mechanism; (3) attach importance to investor relations and investor relations management

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